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                                                                                                                                                                          澳门在线赌博网:消费数据企稳回升商贸零售显机遇 六股布局良机

                                                                                                                                                                          2019-03-27 07:10 酷艾色新闻资讯中心

                                                                                                                                                                          第1页:消费数据企稳回升 商贸零售三主线显机遇第2页:苏宁易购:全渠道&全品类扩张,收入持续高成长第3页:永辉超市深度报告:聚焦商超主业,整合赋能再起航第4页:南极电商:gmv延续快速增长,马太效应持续体现第5页:周大生:2018业绩符合预期,龙头地位持续巩固第6页:潮宏基:Q3收入环比提速,扣非后净利润持平第7页:舍得酒业:定增彰显大股东信心,舍得即将展翅翱翔

                                                                                                                                                                          (原标题:消费数据企稳回升 商贸零售三主线显机遇)

                                                                                                                                                                          消费数据企稳回升 商贸零售三主线显机遇

                                                                                                                                                                          社零增速企稳

                                                                                                                                                                          2019年1-2月社会消费品零售总额(下简称“社零总额”)66064亿元,同比增长8.2%,增速与上年12月份持平,社零增速已进入稳步上升区间,基本生活类商品保持较快增长。

                                                                                                                                                                          数据进一步显示,2019年1-2月份,全国网上零售额13983亿元,同比增长13.6%。其中,实物商品网上零售额10901亿元,增长19.5%,占社会消费品零售总额的比重为16.5%,环比小幅下滑。山西证券商贸零售行业分析师谷茜表示,从投资、消费的数据来看,当前国内需求面有所改善,但传导至终端零售尚需时日,预计2019年二季度消费数据企稳,下半年开始将温和回升。

                                                                                                                                                                          “从二季度起,较低的基数以及促进消费政策逐步落实,有望推动零售增速逐步改善。”华金证券行业分析师王冯分析称。

                                                                                                                                                                          从行业总体趋势看,国信证券行业分析师王念春表示,“对2019年消费市场整体持谨慎乐观的观点。”一方面外部干扰因素有望减弱;另一方面,随着减税降费政策持续推进,多部门政策将为民企创造更好的经营环境。这些因素带来的消费增量有望逐步体现。

                                                                                                                                                                          关注高弹性龙头股

                                                                                                                                                                          消费数据企稳回升,市场预期向好的当下,前期涨幅并不显著的商贸零售板块,有哪些机会值得关注?

                                                                                                                                                                          谷茜表示,建议逢低布局关注三条主线:第一,具有抗周期性的、受益必选消费稳健增长态势,供应链提效带来业绩稳定增长的超市板块;第二,数字化赋能,保持逆势外延扩张速度的低估值优质线下商业龙头;第三,消费分级背景下,二三线城市品质消费和大众消费仍然存在一定增量空间,有能力通过消化这部分增量持续提升行业集中度的线上线下龙头企业。

                                                                                                                                                                          “短期关注高速增长、弹性较大的细分龙头估值修复。”王念春表示,前期由于市场宽信用预期上升而使得市场投资标的偏好发生较大改变,但站在当前时点,前期涨幅不大、具备长线竞争力的公司有望在消费企稳以及业绩公布密集期获得补涨。此外,政策层面的一系列减税降费政策逐步兑现,对终端消费复苏将带来积极影响。中长期看,行业集中度提升仍然是商贸零售的主旋律,从整合集中提速的角度推荐高速展店、竞争优势明显的细分行业龙头。

                                                                                                                                                                          民生证券表示,伴随消费观念的升级和女性消费力的持续提升,化妆品行业迎来广阔成长空间;同时,三四线城市和农村消费市场消费需求有望进一步扩大和升级,渠道下沉或将为零售企业带来更大发展空间,建议关注三四线城市渠道布局占据优势的黄金珠宝行业的领跑者。